In this podcast, we talked about chances of an escalation between Russia and Poland. Markers that show level of Russians ready to press the red button. First step is done already.
00:33 – Changing key to stop global war
00:53 – Possible scenario of attack in the Baltic States
01:03 – What are the indicators of readiness to attack Poland?
02:01 – Using nuclear weapons is the most possible scenario. Why?
02:53 – Have we reached the culmination point?
06:01 – The first 4 weeks of the war.
16:53 – What is the situation in the East of Kyiv?
36:32 – How Russia mans their army.
47:32 – Chemical and nuclear weapons.
58:56 – Are Ukrainians proud of their heritage?
1:06:26 – This isn't about NATO.
Scenario of escalation
Forecast of Russian's army steps in April
Medical supply, Ukraine vs Russian
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Let's talk about what we've seen in the last week, I have a lot of friends in Poland, team members of my companies who have evacuated to Poland, and the question starts bubbling up. What is the what are the probabilities? What are the risks, and someone called me this week from Poland? And they asked me to give them my best advice on whether they should sell their apartment like they're planning and if they should take an extended vacation. And I'll ask you, what do you think the risks are right now?
❝ Chance of escalation between Russia and Poland is quit high! Tweet
IAfter hearing maybe the mid-days tirade against Poland a couple of days ago. Well, I read it, I didn't hear it.It's basically saying that they are, the scum of the earth, and they need to be wiped out and etc. Now, I mean, the indicator that we're not in for a good move is if the Russians close the embassy in Warsaw.
They were burning papers, this slide is
Burning papers, but that may well be linked to the fact that Poland has told them 45 of them need to leave. Yes, so 40 out of probably 140 or something is not going to shake. I don't know how many are in the embassy, but it's not a small embassy in Warsaw. Yeah. 45 is not going to close the embassy. But if they do close the embassy as they did in Kiev, then I think we must take it seriously that he's going to do something more so.
I'm living in Riga and Tallinn and, and Vilnius in terms of doing something military, I mean, he hasn't got the capacity to take the so wonky corridor, and close that at the moment. I mean, they're just not good enough, and they don't have enough troops and the Russians wouldn't do it. So that's not going to happen. There's enough quality of NATO soldiers there to keep that corridor open whatever happens. But actually, Puting putting a weapon down on the other capitals, I think is a real possibility. And it doesn't have to be nuclear. You've seen what the mess they made of. If you put the same amount of force down into the center of Riga, or the center of the old town of Tallinn, for example. I mean, that would really devastate the country. And, and maybe not so much with Vilnius, because Vilnius is slightly more spread out in some ways than the other two. It could be conventional. It doesn't have to be nuclear, it doesn't have to be chemical. But just attacking them would also bring terror to Europe. And it's got to be considered a high probability.
Warsaw most probable target
In the last couple of weeks, we haven't heard as much vitriol against the other three Baltic States, but trust me, and the Russian-speaking press in the other state, in the Baltic States. There are lots of things saying how bad NATO is how bad USA is, how bad Latvia is. And so they're not giving up on that.
Changing key to stop global war.
David Simms 58:56
Something very important is to think from the Russian perspective. So Medvedev, Putin, they've all said if provoked, right? There's an existential threat to Russia. This is only the beginning of using nuclear chemical weapons is not off the table. But you got to define an existential threat. Since Putin, since he is Russia, he considers Ukraine part of Russia, any losing in Ukraine is an existential threat to Russia.
Therefore, that in the Russian mind in the Putin mind, justifies the use of chemical biological, radiological nuclear weapons. You have to turn and think, from the Russian perspective, what existential means, right? And how they define it not how you define Russia, but how Russian specifically, Putin defines Russia. And that's the important thing there. The last thing I got and get to this video, cuz it's gonna be great if you got to think on the Ukrainian leadership side, as well, their response to Russia by establishing what the priorities are at the Ukrainian strategic operational tactical level. So the Russian objective is regime changing key. So that's probably strategic priority number one. So that's the weighted main effort.
❝ Changing of Putic regime is strategic priority number one! Tweet
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